Supply Chain Management (SCM) Planning Essentials - Using Excel to Forecast Demand, Sales and Operations

Why Should You Attend:

This webinar will discuss how to anticipate market demand and use Excel’s built-in features to develop an effective, accurate sales forecast based on a variety of proven techniques. An accurate sales forecast drives all other supply chain management planning procedures.

Once an accurate sales forecast based on constant or variable (seasonal, fluctuating, etc.) demand is produced, you’re ready for the next phase of this project. You’ll learn the fundamentals needed to integrate demand with supply and production to produce a high level of effective Sales & Operational Planning (S&OP).

This information-packed webinar moves first from demand planning to practical Excel-based sales forecasting techniques merged with operational integration of supply chain timing fundamentals. The secrets to forecasting accuracy and the methodologies that can distort the measured variance from the forecast will be clearly explained. The session will conclude with the whys, hows, and an agenda to make this process an enterprise-level/ERP endeavor.

Learning Objectives:

• SCM Demand and Sales Forecasting
• Two Ways to Easily Use Excel for Sales Forecasting Using Linear Regression
• Using Regression Analysis to Easily Identify What Drives Sales, and to What Degree
• Effortless Exponential Smoothing Techniques to Forecast Revenues
• Exponential Smoothing Using a Simple MAPE Formula and Easy Excel Modeling Tools
• Qualitative v. Quantitative Sales Forecasting Techniques
• How To Meld Top-Down v. Bottom-Up Forecasting Techniques for a Balanced Forecast
• How To Integrate Your Sales Forecast with Supply, Demand, Vendors and Production
• How To Integrate Supply and Demand with a Rolling Forecast
• How To Use the C/D Ratio (Capacity to Demand) to Integrate Demand and Forecast
• How To Use a Rolling Sales Forecast for Seasonal Demand
• How To Use Time Fence Models to Produce a Margin of Safety Between Supply and Demand
• How To Evaluate the Accuracy of a Rolling Sales Forecast with the a MAPE Model
• The Proper Denominator To Use for Sales Forecast Variance Analysis and Why
• How To Evaluate the Accuracy of a Rolling Sales Forecast with Monthly and Total Variance Analysis
• The Keys To Forecast Accuracy Improvement
• How To Make SCM Planning and Evaluation and Enterprise-Wide, Buy-In Project

Areas Covered in the Webinar:

Understanding Demand

• Constrained v. Unconstrained Demand
• Demand v. Forecast

Sales Forecasting Techniques

• Linear Regression Analysis Made Easy – Two Easy, Can’t-Miss Methods Using Excel
• What Drives Your Sales – How To Isolate Your Firm’s Sales Drivers Using Excel
• Exponential Smoothing Using Excel Tools
• Easily Understand How To Model MAPE and Statistical Alpha
• Using Excel’s Goal Seek and Viewing Your Chart Results
• Qualitative and Quantitative Aspects of Sales Forecasting
• Bottom Up/Top Down Forecasting
• Arriving at a Balanced Sales Forecast

Integrating Supply & Demand Planning

• Rolling Forecast & C/D Ratio (Capacity to Demand Ratio)
• Static v. Rolling Forecast
• Static v. Seasonal or Holiday Cycle Demand
• Time Fence Modeling – Fixed, Semi-Variable and Variable

Accuracy Assurance and Continuous Improvement

• Assessing Sales Forecast Variance Month by Month
• Modeling Sales Forecast v. Time Fence and Percent Variance
• Modeling MAPE to Assess Accuracy
• MAPE Denominator Management or Mismanagement

An Agenda to Make SCM Planning an Enterprise-Wide Team Project

Who Will Benefit:

• Manufacturing and engineering professionals
• Accountants and financial professionals, from staff level to CFO, and especially cost accountants
• CIO and IT professionals who need an overview of this business process and enterprise software
• CEOs and business owners
• Business logistics personnel
• Anyone new to supply chain management needing a quick but comprehensive overview
• Any business professional looking to supplement their knowledge

Joe Weil
CEO, NCCE

Joe Weil, CPA, M. Acc., is the president of the National Center for Continuing Education (NCCE), a Tallahassee based nationwide financial training firm. With over 25 years’ experience, Mr. Weil has led over 400 seminars on Excel and financial topics and several highly acclaimed webinars on the same topics. He is a former corporate controller, former state agency director of auditing, and a former municipal CFO.

Mr. Weil earned his Master of Accounting Degree at Florida State University. His training clientele include Harley-Davidson, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, Deloitte, Florida Power and Light, Motorola, National Institute of Science and Technology, and many others.

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